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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.31.19 MIA at SD

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OFFENSE

MIA Away vs LHP, 2019 (Last 30 Days)

  • 185 PA
  • .220/.261/.329 Triple Slash
  • .590 OPS
  • .110 ISO
  • .25 wOBA
  • 54 wRC+
  • 34.1% Hard Hit Rate
  • 20.0% K Rate
  • 4.9% BB Rate

SD Home vs LHP, 2019 (Last 30 Days)

  • 103 PA
  • .275/.343/.505 Triple Slash
  • .849 OPS
  • .231 ISO
  • .357 wOBA
  • 126 wRC+
  • 40.6% Hard Hit Rate

STARTING PITCHING

Caleb Smith Away, 2019 (5 Games Started)

  • 26.2 IP
  • 4.39 ERA / 4.53 FIP / 4.33 xFIP
  • 1.05 WHIP
  • .206/.271/.464 Triple Slash Allowed
  • 37.5% Hard Hit Rate
  • 60.3% Fly Ball Rate
  • 10.2% Barrel Rate
  • Averaging over 50% Hard Hit Rates Last 3 GS

I’m not trying to misrepresent the fact that Caleb Smith is a very good starter. If you follow along here, I bet C.Smith. However he has been a bit different on the road, more so of late. I’m not expecting the Friars to bounce him early; Avoiding the Ks will be key. Personally I’m hoping to see a lot of pitches from Smith. The earlier we can into that bullpen, the better.

Joey Lucchesi Home, 2019 (6 Games Started)

  • 35.0 IP
  • 2.83 ERA / 3.15 FIP / 3.34 xFIP
  • 1.09 WHIP
  • 33 K : 9 BB
  • 23.1% K Rate
  • .221/.271/.359 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .630 OPSA
  • .272 wOBAA
  • 35.4% Hard Hit Rate
  • 7.0% Barrel Rate

BULLPENS LAST 7 DAYS

TeamIPAVGWHIPERAFIPxFIPSIERABB %
Padres200.3211.556.755.73.613.464.5
Marlins22.10.3021.937.254.625.775.3112.6

The Padre bullpen hasn’t been great, but the strong peripherals and low BB rate do give a glimmer of hope. SD has only allowed five losses, second in the bigs compared to the Marlins with twelve (tied for 3rd worst in MLB).

THE PLAY: SD ML

The Padres have been a thorn in the side of the MLBMA program but tonight they’re at home, have arguably their best SP, in his best split, versus the league’s worst offense in the middle of a slump. I’m hoping Joey can get deep enough into the game that the Friars won’t need many more than three outs from anyone not named Yates. I’m going to be 100% transparent, this game just barely cleared the MLBMA filters because of how much it likes Caleb Smith. Regardless, I presented the argument and as always, you must decide your own fate. I will assure you one thing; I put my own money on every single play that I feature here.

Let’s Get It.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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