Sports Betting
MLBMA Daily Notes 5.28.19 SD at NYY
OFFENSE
NYY Home, (Last 10 Days)
- 80 PA
- 16.3% BB Rate
- .284/.400/.642 Triple Slash
- 1.042 OPS
- .358 ISO
- .425 wOBA
- 170 wRC+
- 65.2% Hard Hit Rate
Technical Analysis
The Yanks have been involved in a bullish channel dating back to May 8; You will notice a succession of higher highs and lower lows. In the nearest terms, New York has experienced a bit of regression, but that was supported by the mean and followed with sustained success. I like the Yankees to have at least one more day’s worth of steam in this rally.
STARTING PITCHING
Eric Lauer Away, 2019 (4 Games Started)
- 19.2 IP
- 9.2% BB Rate
- 8.24 ERA / 4.95 FIP / 4.05 xFIP
- 1.53 WHIP
- .278/.345/.481 Triple Slash Allowed
- .826 OPSAA
- .348 wOBAA
- 44.1% Hard Hit Rate Allowed
- Weak Statcast Data
BULLPENS LAST 7 DAYS
| Team | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | ERA | FIP |
| Padres | 2.45 | 0.293 | 1.25 | 5.4 | 4.48 |
THE PLAY: NYY TT 5
I started looking at this game as a potential NYY ML, but the Padres are the sixth best offense by team wOBA over the last seven days (.372), and Tanaka in Yankee Stadium is a combination that’s prone to homers. Although Tanaka has pitched his best ball in the Bronx, I think the clear mismatch here is the hot-hitting Yankees versus a Padres staff putting too many runners on and struggling to get outs.
I haven’t placed bets yet because of the weather, so please be careful. It’s likely that I pull this play off board depending on the weather. If there is any delay or precipitation it would be wise to avoid.
Let’s get it.
