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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.28.19 NYM at LAD




LAD vs LHP, (Last 10 Days)

  • 90 PA
  • 12.2% BB Rate
  • .280/.378/.533 Triple Slash
  • .911 OPS
  • .253 ISO
  • .374 wOBA
  • 142 wRC+
  • 39.4% Hard Hit Rate


Steven Matz Away, 2019 (5 Games Started)

  • 20.2 IP
  • 6.10 ERA / 6.45 FIP / 4.63 xFIP
  • 1.60 WHIP
  • .304/.347/.598 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .945 OPSAA
  • .389 wOBAA
  • 43.1% Hard Hit Rate
  • 12.8% Barrel Rate
  • Very weak Statcast Data



THE PLAY: LAD TT O4.5 / O8 (Split)

It’s not too hard to figure out where I’m going to go with this one; The Dodgers are the second best offense by team wOBA (.390) over the last seven days and Matz hasn’t found a groove on the road. Even his starts with decent results were riddled with base runners, hard-hit balls and lucky outs. Add in a Met bullpen with an ERA north of 6.00 this past week and I think LA gets to five runs easily tonight.

That being said, I have had timing issues with team total bets this year; They make up the majority of my losses. I’m not superstitious, but it is my business to weigh odds and track performance. The Dodger bullpen has been terrible over the last seven games (7.64 ERA / 1.58 WHIP) and the Mets are hitting, so if you think the Mets are good for three runs the Over 8 is in play.

As of right now, since I’m torn on the two plays and I don’t want to overexpose myself to a single game, my plan is to weigh and play them evenly knowing there’s a possibility of a split.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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