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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.25.19 MIA at WAS




MIA Road vs LHP, (Last 30 Days)

  • 162 PA
  • .242/.286/.369 Triple Slash
  • .655 OPS
  • .128 ISO
  • .281 wOBA
  • 73 wRC+

WAS Home, (Last 7 Days)

  • 119 PA
  • .324/.398/.600 Triple Slash
  • .998 OPS
  • .276 ISO
  • .415 wOBA
  • 156 wRC+
  • 41.7% Hard Hit Rate
  • 10.1% BB Rate


Sandy Alcantara Road, 2019 (4 Games Started)

  • 19.2 IP
  • 8 K : 17 BB
  • 18.3% BB Rate
  • 4.58 ERA / 7.67 FIP / 7.25 xFIP
  • 1.88 WHIP
  • .270/.413/.473 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .886 OPSAA
  • .382 wOBAA

Patrick Corbin Home, 2019 (5 Starts)

  • 33.2 IP
  • 40 K : 9 BB
  • 30.5 K%
  • 2.94 ERA / 2.38 FIP / 3.25 xFIP
  • 0.95 WHIP
  • .192/.254/.292 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .241 wOBAA
  • 30.9% Hard Hit Rate
  • 1st time through order 2.35 ERA
  • 2nd time through order 2.91 ERA
  • 3rd time through order 4.91 ERA


The Nats bullpen is bordering on being historically terrible, and are to be avoided at all costs. Their ERA over the last seven days is north of eight. No thanks. Couple that with the spike in Corbin’s ERA as he progresses through the game and this one is a clear five inning play.


The Nats have a statistical edge on both sides of the ball in this shortened five inning matchup. Alcantara is coming off a gem which I think was the clear anomaly given his extreme control issues. WAS has the 6th best team wOBA over the last seven days (.355), and has shown great plate discipline in that span. I believe that they will be patient enough with Alcantara to force him to make mistakes and take this one down today.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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