The bullpens’ surface stats are very evenly matched in the middle of the pack in this one. If anything the Twins get the nod because they have strong peripherals behind the ERA, whereas the CHW FIP, xFIP & SIERA are all in the mid to late twenties as far as rank.
THE PLAY: MIN ML
At a glance, this play seems extremely contrarian; Reynaldo is coming off two good starts, and Berrios off of two bad ones. However Reynaldo is known to implode and I like my money buying low on a quality pitcher like Berrios at home with the top team wOBA over the last seven days (.408) behind him. I think Jose gets it right tonight for the Twinkies.
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018