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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.24.19 CHW at MIN




CHW Road, (Last 7 Days)

  • 144 PA
  • .207/.257/.370 Triple Slash
  • .627 OPS
  • .163 ISO
  • .270 wOBA
  • 66 wRC+
  • 34.7 K%

MIN, (Last 7 Days)

  • 259 PA
  • .317/.378/.609 Triple Slash
  • .987 OPS
  • .291 ISO
  • .408 wOBA
  • 156 wRC+
  • 41.7% Hard Hit Rate


Reynaldo Lopez Road, 2019 (3 Games Started)

  • 16.0 IP
  • 5.06 ERA / 6.21 xFIP
  • 1.69 WHIP
  • .328/.392/.433 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .359 wOBAA
  • 43.6% Hard Hit Rate
  • 10.2% Barrel Rate
  • Weak Statcast data (below)

Jose Berrios Home, 2019 (5 Starts)

  • 33.0 IP
  • 3.00 ERA / 3.21 FIP / 3.92 xFIP
  • 1.12 WHIP
  • .250/.281/.383 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .284 wOBAA
  • 34.4% Hard Hit Allowed Rate


The bullpens’ surface stats are very evenly matched in the middle of the pack in this one. If anything the Twins get the nod because they have strong peripherals behind the ERA, whereas the CHW FIP, xFIP & SIERA are all in the mid to late twenties as far as rank.


At a glance, this play seems extremely contrarian; Reynaldo is coming off two good starts, and Berrios off of two bad ones. However Reynaldo is known to implode and I like my money buying low on a quality pitcher like Berrios at home with the top team wOBA over the last seven days (.408) behind him. I think Jose gets it right tonight for the Twinkies.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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