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MLBMA Daily Notes 5/1

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CLE at MIA

CLE on Road vs LHP 2019

  • 110 PA
  • .223/.321/.309 Triple Slash
  • 085 ISO
  • .280 Team wOBA
  • 64 wRC+

MIA SP – Caleb Smith

Smith at Home 2019

  • 3 GS
  • 17 IP
  • 22 K : 4 BB
  • 1.59 ERA / 1.23 FIP / 2.55 XFIP
  • 0.82 WHIP
  • .167/.219/.233 Triple Slash
  • .202 wOBAA

Smith is also sporting elite Statcast metrics across the board, shown below

Technical Analysis MIA Offense

MLBMA Custom Charts Exclusively at WINDAILYDFS.COM

The chart is probably what you would expect from the Marlins, it’s ugly. However they’re a pro team, and they all spike at times. Coming off of bottoming out, the Marlins have experienced regular cyclical spikes. I’m never going to call for an offensive explosion from this squad but from a technical standpoint we could be on deck for a few runs today at home for the Fish.

Opposing SP – Corey Kluber

Kluber has a 5.81 Road ERA & 1.68 WHIP in 6 GS. His struggles are pretty well documented and its being heavily reflected in his Xstats (below).

THE PLAY

Considering the Indians bullpen is tops right now, the MIA bullpen has a 7+ ERA L7, & Smith being a 5-6 inning guy we want to shorten this to an F5 play. Id love to take the +120 F5ML, but the safe play here is to respect Kluber’s potential and bet the MIA RL +0.5

Lets get it

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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