MLB DFS Winners and Losers: Perez, Snell, and More

There was a 12 game slate on Monday May 6th. I will cover a few players who performed really well and some who fell short of expectations.

Winners

Martin Perez ($6,600)

Perez pitched seven innings against the Toronto Blue Jays and picked up the win. He only allowed two hits and gave up two walks. He was able to strike out nine over 102 pitches. Perez finished with 35.35 fantasy points. This is his second impressive start in a row after racking up 32.4 fantasy points in his last start against the Astros. This game improved Perez’s record to 5-0 and his ERA now sits at 2.83. His WHIP also improved to an impressive 1.26. Perez also upped his K/9 to 8.5. This is a big improvement to his career K/9 of only 5.6.

Perez’s Outlook

Perez’s next projected start will come on the road against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday May 11th. The Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the league, scoring only 3.5 runs per game with a team batting average of .233. Perez has had three games this year that were sub-par and all three of them came on the road. He has averaged only 5.5 fantasy points per game on the road this year, compared to 23.33 at home. Perez has put up three straight games of at least 19 fantasy points and the matchup is a pretty tasty one here, even on the road. His strikeout numbers are up this year and Detroit has struggled early. I will look at Perez at his sub-$7,000 price range as someone to roster.

Blake Snell ($9,700)

Blake Snell and the Rays hosted the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday. Snell pitched a really good game, giving up only one hit and no walks over six innings pitched. He was also able to rack up nine strikeouts over only 83 pitches. The Rays dominated this game, winning 12-1, which may have factored into Snell only throwing 83 pitches. This was as cheap as you could find Snell in awhile because he had two bad games in a row going into Monday. Snell improved his record to 3-3 and his WHIP improved to an elite 0.96.

Snell’s Outlook

Snell’s next projected start will be against Yankees on Saturday May 11th. The Yankees have averaged 5.1 runs per game this year and have been surprisingly better on the road, averaging six runs per game away from Yankee Stadium. With Snell’s K/9 now sitting above 12 and the Yankees history of having high a high strikeout rate, I like this upcoming matchup. Snell has been boom or bust this year, with four games over 30 fantasy points and three games under six. I expect a boom in this game against the Yankees.

Chris Paddack ($9,200)

Monday was a good day for pitchers, as the top Three point scorers were all starting pitchers. Paddack led them all with 40.25 fantasy points. He was able to get through 7.2 shutout innings while only giving up only four hits and one walk. He racked up 11 strikeouts and only threw 91 pitches. Paddack improved upon his already stout ERA of 1.71 and his incredible WHIP of only 0.70. His K/9 has also now rose to over 10.1.

Paddack’s Outlook

Paddack’s next projected start will be on the road against the Dodgers on Tuesday May 14th. The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the league with a team batting average of .256 while averaging over 5.3 runs per game. These good numbers for the Dodgers, but they do not scare me away from Paddack though, as he has put up at least 13 fantasy points per game and now has four games with 20-plus. I will continue to roster Paddack moving forward until he gives us a good reason not do so.

Losers

Merrill Kelly ($7,800)

Kelly and the Diamondbacks matched up with Snell and the Rays on Monday and Kelly was roughed up badly. Kelly gave up seven earned runs on seven hits and three walks while only getting through four innings. This equaled out to -7.6 fantasy points. This loss dropped Kelly’s record to 3-3 on the year. His ERA now sits at 4.85 and his WHIP has grown to 1.49. His K/9 also sits at a mediocre 7.15.

Kelly’s Outlook

Kelly’s next projected start will be on Saturday May 11th at home against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have scored the seventh most runs in the league this year and average over 5.1 per game. They also have the third best team batting average this year at .265. Kelly has struggled in his last five starts, having only two games with double digit fantasy points. With Kelly’s bad recent form and the Braves prolific offense, I am staying away from Kelly in this upcoming game.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,900)

Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays faced Martin Perez and the Minnesota Twins on Monday. Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-3 and struck out twice. He had a ton of hype after being brought up to the Majors by the Blue Jays, but his career has gotten off to a rough start. In his nine games since being brought up, he has has only been able to get five hits and his batting average sits at a dismal .152 with an OPS of .425. He has twice as many strikeouts as hits with 10.

Guerrero Jr’s Outlook

Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays have two more home games against the Twins before hosting the White Sox for three games. They will get Jose Berrios on Tuesday before facing Kyle Gibson on Wednesday. I am for sure staying away on Tuesday, as Berrios has been lights out with a WHIP of 0.97. Gibson has also been pretty good with a WHIP of 1.32. After the next two games he will get a plus matchup against the White Sox. The White Sox pitching staff has the second worst ERA in the league at 5.67. They also give up a team batting average of .272. This is the series I expect Guerrero Jr. to break out and also get his first career Major League home run.

Injury Report

Jason Vargas has been placed on the 10-day injured list after he left Sunday’s start against the Brewers with hamstring tightness.

David Price has been placed on the 10-day injured list with elbow tendonitis.