Trevor Bauer has been nothing short of spectacular this season.
Bauer is 3-1, posting a 1.99 ERA, as well as racking up at least seven
strikeouts in every game this season except one. He travels to Miami and faces
a team that is bottom five in average and HRs on the season. Although Miami is
middle of the pact in strikeouts, they are dead last in drawing walks on the
year. This bodes for many balls to be put in play or being whiffed on. With
Cleveland opening as a -200 favorite and the game total being set at 7, I see
Bauer posting a clean outing here. The Indians have shown that they will let
Bauer go until he can’t anymore, as he leads MLB in pitches per start. Not to
mention his tournament upside is the highest on the slate.
I know we all got hurt by Blake Snell last week against these same Royals, but I don’t see that happening again. In Snell’s last start he gave up one extra base hit and four timely singles that ultimately ran him out of the game. Snell is an elite talent and has one of the highest upsides on this slate. The Royals are a terrible team that has strikeout hitters up and down their lineup. So far this season the Royals have only two players below a 20% K rate, Whit Merrifield (16%) and Alex Gordon (19.5%). Against curveballs this season the Royals have really struggled, as everyone has a whiff % over 30% other than Merrifield. I firmly believe Snell bounces back in a huge way and dominates the team that ran him off the field in his last start.
Walker Buehler @ San Francisco Giants – $9,900 DraftKings,
The pitcher friendly park here is what is really drawing my eye.
Walker Buehler has been somewhat unspectacular this season, although I see a
turnaround in a huge way in this one. Opening as a -160 favorite with a total
at low seven, I see this being another low-scoring affair as he squares of with
Drew Pomeranz. We all know the exceptional talent that Buehler possesses, we
just have not seen it on the field other than his start against Cincinnati two
weeks ago. I know the Giants are bottom of the league in strikeouts per game,
but they are also bottom in the league in every hitting statistic. Over Buehler’s
short career he has been able to neutralize left-handed bats. This is huge,
because one of the Giants’ best hitters is Brandon Belt, a lefty. If he can
neutralize the power of Belt, I am not scared of any hitter in this lineup. As
a team they are batting only .210 on the season. The strikeouts will come for
Buehler and this is his breakout. I am all over Buehler today, in one of my
favorite pay up spots.
Vincent Velasquez vs. Detroit Tigers – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Let me start off by saying his price on FanDuel is ridiculous with the amount of strikeout upside this guy has. To start the season, Velasquez holds a 1.99 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The Tigers are coming into town with all the strikeouts you could imagine. Just on Sunday, Reynaldo Lopez., let me say that name again so it sinks in, Reynaldo Lopez carved them up for 14 strikeouts. Oh, and that was only in SIX innings. There are strikeouts up and down this lineup and the Tigers are just a terrible offensive team. The Tigers are 29th in the league in strikeouts per game with 10.15. On the season they are batting .229 as a team and are dead last in home runs. When Velasquez is on, and he is hitting his spots he has ridiculous upside. I think he must be your tournament play on FanDuel and definitely in consideration for your SP2 on DraftKings.
Julio Teheran .vs San Diego Padres – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
As I am writing this I’m just getting tilted already, as this is slightly gross. Let’s dig in to the good things, though, and let me show you why they outweigh the bad here. San Diego is very strikeout prone, as they average 9.57 Ks per game. To righties, Teheran loves to throw his slider, as he does 35% of the time, and the Padres as a whole aren’t very good against it. Besides Franmil Reyes and Manny Machado, the Padres don’t make very solid contact versus sliders. Now I know Teheran isn’t great, but he is a very solid pitcher at home. The trouble Teheran has are with lefties and he won’t be facing any in this lineup that scare me the slightest bit. I love Teheran as a lower priced pitcher, especially for tournaments, as I feel he will go pretty under-owned.
Won the FanDuel, 11K MLB Pickoff Single Entry Tournament in May of 2019. Started playing MLB DFS a couple years ago and have found success as mainly a cash game player. After playing season-long fantasy for five years I decided to give DFS a shot and have never looked back. Grinding all year around with MLB, NBA and NFL.