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MLB DFS Plays and PROPS (Apr. 11)

Opening Weekend has come and gone. But the excitement for the return of baseball hasn’t. We saw a profitable weekend in the Props market as we sit at +2.3 units on the season to date. The focus has been on good spring training performances being rolled into the regular season. Now we can start looking at last 3 game metrics and roll that into the analysis.

For the most part, Monday is a transition day for many teams as we have 3 home openers on the slate. And once again we have a split slate with 4 early games in the DFS market starting at 210 pm EST and 7 night games starting at 640pm EST. Here are my focused DFS players for today’s early games (and a 2 night time props) .

PITCHERS – MLB DFS PLAYS & PROPS

EARLY SLATE

DAKOTA HUDSON ($8100 DK) – The 27-year-old pitcher for the Cardinals virtually missed all of the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery in September 2020. I say virtually because he did start one game at the end of the season against the Cubs in which he went 5 innings allowing 0 runs. But remember this Dakota Hudson is the same guy that went 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA as a 24-year-old in 2019. He just has a new elbow to suit. Combine that with news out of spring training that Hudson will have no restrictions this season and you have the potential for a top of the rotation arm once again. And today, he faces a Pirates team that was woeful for the first two games of the series against St. Louis. Their bats got going yesterday, but that was against a left handed pitcher (LHP) in Steven Matz. So far on the year, the Pirates are hitting 0.238 with 0 HR’s against RHP but 0.423 with 1 HR against LHP. Well, Dakota is a right handed pitcher (RHP) and he has already been stretched out to 90 pitches in a simulation game. I like his matchup and project he’ll get at least 5 innings today which makes him a building block for my afternoon slate.

PROP BET:

KOOL-AIDE MAN (VALUE PITCHER)

AUSTIN GOMBER ($5700 DK) – There isn’t much to choose from on the early slate as we are into teams’ 4th and 5th starters. But one pitcher that has good value and upside is Austin Gomber from the Colorado Rockies. Our tools here at WinDailySports have the young LHP projected at the 2nd highest points on the early slate of games. His value is over 1.5x which makes him an attractive play. And if you dive into his numbers from last year, he had an ERA (4.53) consistent with his FIP (4.61) and just a notch above his xERA (4.06). Gomber wields a four-pitch arsenal with his best offering being a fantastic curve ball. His focus in spring has been to pitch more with a plan instead of a pitch-by-pitch feel. This has offered optimism in the Colorado camp as they hope to see a pitcher who resembled a top-end starter for parts of 2021. The problem with Austin Gomber is that he’s facing a talented Rangers offense that just hung a 12 spot on the Blue Jays yesterday. And so far in 2022, they have 4 home runs and are batting 0.333 against LHP’s. So this is a spot that could be hit or big whiff. But with the SP only costing $5700 and the market not having much in the value in the early games, I have no issue combining Gomber and Hudson (even Houser in some lineups) as my pitching duo.

HITTERS – MLB DFS PLAYS & PROPS

EARLY SLATE

DYLAN CARLSON ($4500 DK) – The young Cardinals outfielder has started well this season. In 3 games, he’s hitting 0.400 with a 1.029 OPS. The crazy part is he has yet to barrel a ball and his hard-hit percentage is at 22%. So he’s off to a good start but it’s from making solid contact to date. And he’s doing it by focusing on hitting the ball through the middle of the field as his spray chart shows 66.7% of his batted balls are straight. That’s the sign of a mature hitter, though he’s only 23 years old, that knows his role in the leadoff position of a potent lineup. Today Carlson is facing a career minor leaguer in Zach Thompson. Thompson did start 14 games for the Marlins last year in what was his rookie campaign as a 27-year-old. He did pose a solid 3.24 ERA but his advanced numbers show some relative luck with a lower than league average in BABIP and HR/FB rate. His xERA (3.68) and xFIP (4.65) were also much higher than his raw numbers. He mainly relies on a fastball and cutter which hover around 93 MPH which is the sweet spot for Dylan Carlson who is hitting 0.429 off those offerings this year. I expect a Carlson to have a nice day at the plate, and potentially on the bases too, as he will be a hitter I play on most of my cards.

PROP BET: Dylan Carlson over 0.5 hits (-200 DK) – This is pricey and more than I’d normally pay. But getting a leadoff hitter that attacks is key here. We have potential for 4+ at bats and Carlson has hit in all 3 games so far.

HUNTER RENFROE ($5000 DK) – I won’t get too deep into numbers here and just give you this. Renfroe vs Zimmerman is a great matchup. The soft tossing LHP from Baltimore had a HR/9 rate near 2.0 last year. His hard-hit percentage was 44% and barrel rate was around 10%. And he was even luckier last year than his numbers showed as his 5.04 ERA had a xERA of 6.39. Roll in Hunter Renfroe who played for Boston last year and got to see Mr. Zimmerman a few times. In his 6 official plate appearances, the strong right handed hitter produced 2 hits with one leaving the park for a home run. Milwaukee had awful weather in Chicago this past weekend. A 63-degree day in Baltimore will feel like mid-summer to them and I expect the bats to heat up against Zimmerman. Stack Milwaukee this afternoon and start it with Renfroe..

SLAP HITTER (VALUE BATTER)

STEVEN KWAN ($2200 DK) – If you haven’t looked at the Guardians games yet, you probably haven’t seen the damage that Steven Kwan is doing. In the first 3 games against Kansas City, Kwan is 8 for 10 with an OPS of 1.857. And DraftKings has yet to adjust as he is priced at $2200. Obviously, the young OF’s production will come back down to earth. But he’s hitting 2nd today a hittable pitcher in Carlos Hernandez. Let’s ride the Kwan train until the steam runs out.

NIGHT GAME PROPS

Kyle Schwarber Total Bases over 1.5 (+115) and to hit a Home Run (+285) – The Phillies new acquisition is already finding comfort in his leadoff role as he homered on Opening Day against the A’s. Today, he gets one of his favorite matchups in Taijuan Walker. For his career, Schwarber is 5 for 10 against the Mets SP with 5 homeruns. So if he makes contact, it’s going to be hard and likely over the fence. I’ll take those odds today and look to cash in on a great hitting matchup.

Byron Buxton Runs Scored over 0.5 (-170) – He’s hot….red hot. Byron Buxton has 3 home runs over the past two games. Yes he’s swinging for the fences but he’s also connecting more than not. And today, he faces Chris Flexen who he is 3 for 3 in his career against with a single, double and home run. Let’s not bank on three straight games with a home run but instead we’ll bet he continues his hot streak and is able to plate one today for the Twins against a pitcher he sees well.

Now that you finished reading this article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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