For tonight, I am going to go with a contrarian stack that could give me or you an advantage in a tournament. You have to take big chances to win big, and with how things are going for one Mets pitcher, this may not seem like such a major leap, anyway.

I’m stacking Cincinnati Reds tonight against Jacob deGrom. Sure, this seems like a prime matchup for the struggling defending Cy Young winner to get right, but until I actually see him show signs of a turnaround, I am going to attack him in DFS. There is hardly a guarantee that tonight is the night when he starts bouncing back. He has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts, with more than five yielded in two of them. He has a 4.85 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

deGrom is 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA in two home starts this season. He has a 6.30 ERA in night games. Opponents are batting .375 the second time through the lineup, so even if he starts well, he could fall apart again in the middle innings. He already has five HRs allowed, half of his entire total from last year.

Yes, the Reds are 25^th in team batting, but they are middle of the pack in HRs. Because of that first number, their hitters will be very lowly owned, maybe at about three percent on average. Plus, they will be lower priced and I can then frontload some of the rest of my lineup with other high priced players.

Meanwhile, deGrom could be about 40 percent owned, and I would take out a good chunk of the field in a tournament even if he simply allows four runs or so. I can see that happening. So give me some Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig and even Derek Dietrich or Jesse Winker.

Many nights, you lose with the chalk plays. So go against convention here and I have a hunch things will go your way tonight.