JT’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 170 ODDS, MMA DFS PICKS, AND PREDICTIONS

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UFC MMA Fight Night 170 is one of the few sporting events scheduled to continue as planned this weekend amid the global coronavirus outbreak. The 12-bout event expected to start at 3 p.m. ET at the Ginasio Nilson Nelson em Brasilia, Brazil, in an empty arena due to the pandemic sweeping the world. Only necessary individuals will be allowed in the building. This fight card is highlighted by a much-awaited lightweight showdown between Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira.

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VERONICA MACEDO (9,300) (-165ML) vs. BAE MALECKI (7,100) (+135ML).

MMA DFS PICK: BAE MALECKI (+135ML) VIA LATE ROUND SUBMISSION.

Malecki holds a 10-inch reach advantage over Macedo, which is extremely significant. Macedo is moving up In a weight class.  At Macedo’s salary on Draftkings is priced as if she is going to come out and knock out Malecki, which I believe is far from the case here. Malecki is a former Muay Tai champion and was on The Ultimate Fighter. She also has the advantage of her incredible reach and coming from an excellent gym. Even though Macedo is a blackbelt, has great kicks, and excellent tae kwon do, I don’t think she comes out and destroys Malecki. The possibility is always there for a knockout on either end. Still, I think the more likely scenario would be that this fight goes the distance with minor fantasy point output or Malecki catches Macedo off guard with a late-round rear-naked choke submission. I will most likely be fading this fight. If I had to choose a fighter, it would be Bae Malecki with the upset.                                  

MAYRA BUENO SILVA (8,500) (-145ML) vs. MARYNA MOROZ (7,700) (+115ML).

MMA DFS PICK: MAYRA BUENO SILVA (-145ML) VIA DECISION.

Moroz has moved up in weight class and does not have great finishing ability. She never comes out aggressive and tries to win the fight immediately. She is always in the fight and competing with decent takedowns. I’m more focused on Bueno Silva. Silva is way more aggressive and continuously searches for opportunities to knock out or submit her opponent. She is usually the type of fighter I look for when building my lineups. She can produce high fantasy output with winning potential. Even though Moroz has looked better as of late, this could end with a late-round submission or possible decision by Bueno Silva.                                                                

BRANDON MORENO (7,400) (+125ML) VS. JUSSIER FORMIGA (8,800) (-155ML).

UFC DFS PICK: BRANDON MORENO (7,400) (+125ML) VIA DECISION.

Moreno is my favorite value play of the card. This is a great spot for Moreno to move up in his career. His DraftKings salary is too low for the fantasy output he is going to produce. He will not fold, give up, or look for a way out versus Formiga. Even though Formiga faced and beaten some of the bigger names since his debut in the UFC in 2012, he is on the decline. Over his past few fights, he has looked a lot slower than he once was and looked to be producing less power. This spot is where Moreno thrives, and Formiga continues his decline. I see Formiga being upset in this bout, but it definitely will go the distance.                                                                               

ELIZEU ZALESKI DOS SANTOS (8,400) (-145ML) vs. ALEXEY KUNCHENKO (7,800) (+100ML).

MMA DFS PICK:ALEXEY KUNCHENKO (7,800) (+100ML) VIA SECOND OR THIRD ROUND KO.

Zaleski dos Santos has a few defensive holes in his game. You can be a fantastic offensive fighter but have to be responsible for yourself and your defense. There have been times he has been outworked and outclassed the entire fight. He is a highly decorated grappler, but fell in love with his hands and started focusing much more on quick knockouts than wins. On the other side, Kunchenko is coming in with one loss and hugely underestimated. He is a former champion, has extreme power in his hands, and is very aggressive on top. My favorite Leverage play in GPP’s is Kunchenko. I believe he comes in and completely catches Zaleski dos Santos off guard in a second or third-round knockout. The safe play in GPP’s would be to play two UFC DFS lineups, one with Zaleski dos Santos and another with Kunchenko.                                                               

AMANDA RIBAS (9,300) (-335ML) vs. RANDA MARKOS (6,900) (+260ML).

MMA PICK: AMANDA RIBAS (9,300) (-335ML) VIA DECISION.

If Markos is going to win this fight, she is going to have to take it to the fence, making it a close fight, take it to the ground, and control Ribas. I do not see that happening. Ribas trains with much more superior athletes than Markos does. This matchup will be a close fight that is taken the distance. The high salary on Ribas is due to her most recent win over Dern. This is one of the many fights today that will be decided by decision. Due to the cheap salary and slim possibility of a potential upset, I will have a few shares of Markos in my GPP lineups. Even though Markos fights up to her opponents, I believe she takes a loss here.                                 

 BRUNO SILVA (8,200) (-110ML) VS. DAVID DVORAK (8,000) (-120ML)

MMA DFS PICK: DAVID DVORAK (8,000) (-120ML) VIA LATE ROUND TKO OR DECISION.

This fight has my attention. Dvorak searches for the perfect opportunity to make his move. He is a highly talented up and comer and a finisher. I don’t believe he gets the finish with Silva. Silva is an aggressive fighter that looks to take the fight to the cage and the ground. Dvorak will work the perimeter and get reversals, looking for every opportunity to work his game. He tends to take the back of a lot of his opponents. Even though Silva has the experience coming from The Ultimate Fighter and the UFC, Dvorak is in his pro debut looking for his first pro win, and potentially fewer nerves with no crowd in attendance. He could beat Silva in a higher scoring UFC DFS fight. This fight could go either way. I am leaning David Dvorak in possibly a late-round TKO or decision.                                                                                                                                                     

ENRIQUE BARZOLA (8,700) (-195ML) VS. RANI YAHYA (7,500) (+160ML).

MMA DFS PICK: ENRIQUE BARZOLA (8,700) (-195ML).

Barzola is an outstanding takedown artist, I believe he should attempt more single and double leg takedowns, but he is not in the best spot. Yahya is a world champion in jiu-jitsu. Rani is an excellent grappler. One mistake by Barzola can result in a quick takedown or reversal by Yahya. He is continuously searching for open legs, attempting to get leg locks on his opponent. Barzola has a nice striking pressure style, where he strikes enough to get takedowns over and over again. The takedowns can bode really well for fantasy point production. In this matchup, production will be surprisingly from striking than grappling, considering both fighters are great grapplers and could be stuck at a stalemate. I think Barzola lands a lot more strikes on Yahya en route to either a unanimous decision or possible knock out late in the fight.                                

FRANCISCO TRINALDO (8,900) (-170ML) VS. JOHN MAKDESSI (7,300) (+140ML)

MMA DFS PICK: FRANCISCO TRINALDO (8,900) (-170ML).

This fight is going to be an extremely close fight, with both fighters alternating pressure on the other. Coming from a new fight camp, Makdessi has looked better. Trinaldo gives everyone he faces trouble. On paper, it looks as if Trinaldo should go out and TKO Makdessi. This fight will be a lot closer than anticipated. It will not be a one-sided affair. Trinaldos pressure should edge out Makdessi in a low scoring UFC DFS fight. I will not be using either fighter in my lineups. It can go either way. It only takes one shot to drop someone and pour on the pressure. If a choice had to be made, I would lean Trinaldo by decision.                                                                                       

JOHNNY WALKER (8,600) (-150ML) VS. NIKITA KRYLOV (7,600) (+120ML).

MMA DFS PICK: KRYLOV(RISKY) (7,600) (+120ML). VIA LATE ROUND SUBMISSION.

Krylov has looked excellent since coming back to the UFC. He is 1-2 in his last three fights. Do not let his last three fights steer you away. His most recent loss came to a highly talented all-around fighter in Teixeira. He submitted Ovince Saint Preux in the second round in his most recent win. Finally, he dropped a fight to Jan Blachowicz, but who hasn’t Jan beaten? The public is all over Walker here with good reason. Walker can come in hot, fast, and always have the potential to knock his opponent out in 30 seconds. My question is, what does Walker look like after the 13 or 14-minute mark when the fight is not going his way? He is not always going to be in the position where he completely dominates his opponent. This could be the spot, coming off of a loss where he blamed everyone but himself. He can come in completely underestimating Krylov and be in for a rude awakening. I think Krylov takes this one by surprise in a late-round submission, completely catching Johnny Walker off guard. I would recommend playing two UFC DFS lineups, one with Walker and one with Krylov.                                                                        

RENATO MOICANO (9,400) (-350ML) VS. DAMIR HADZOVIC (6,800) (+275ML)

MMA DFS PICK: DAMIR HADZOVIC (6,800) (+275ML) VIA DECISION.

Moicano has good low kicks, nice scrambling ability, great striking, and excellent jiu-jitsu. All of the great things you need to excel in the UFC. He is coming off back to back knockout losses at a lower weight class, looking to break the slump and destroy his next opponent. The problem is his next opponent is Demir Hadzovic, a big guy who is an all-around good fighter. Hadzovic looks like the stronger guy in this bout. Seeing as Damir does not do many things wrong, is very defensive, and does not leave himself exposed to massive strikes by his opponents, might create an issue for Moicano. Moicano, on the other hand, lacks defense and solely relies on his offensive capabilities to knock out his opponent. He leaves himself open to a possible knockout or submission. I do not believe this happens in this case, but I do possibly see a massive upset coming in a decision win by Hadzovic to pay off his extremely cheap Draftkings salary. The only way Moicano pays off his high priced Draftkings price tag is with a first-round knockout, which I do not see happening.                                                                                                                               

CO-MAIN EVENT:

DEMIAN MAIA (7,300) (+145ML) VS. GILBERT BURNS (9,000) (-175ML).

MMA DFS PICK: GILBERT BURNS (9,000) (-175ML) VIA DECISION. 

Maia can make this a grueling fight. He can make this turn into a low scoring fantasy point fight. This is a spot where Burns can control the fight on the ground, but with minimal fantasy output. If Maia rolls his way to a 15-minute decision, this will be an irrelevant fight from a fantasy point perspective. The two fighters have very similar styles of fighting to the point where they basically can cancel each other out. Both men in this competition are dominant grapplers, have excellent takedowns, submissions, and are highly decorated black belts. Maia is great with his Jiu-jitsu style, and Burns Is with his Muay Tai. As of late, Burns has fallen in love with his kickboxing and could potentially separate himself from Maia in that category. Maia is more accustomed to fighting at his respective weight class, where Burns has slowly been getting acclimated to the weight class bump from 155 to 170. I believe this is going to be a close lower-scoring fantasy point fight that ends in a very close decision.                                                          

MAIN EVENT:

KEVIN LEE (8,300) (-150ML) VS. CHARLES OLIVEIRA (7,900) (+120ML)

MMA DFS PICK: KEVIN LEE (8,300) (-150ML) VIA LATE ROUND TKO.

Kevin Lee is one of the top five lightweights in the UFC. In his two fights, he has gone the distance; he has produced heavy Draftkings points. In his win, he produced 164 Draftkings points, and in his loss, he produced 75. He can out muscle and put heavy pressure on Oliveira. In the past, Oliveira has folded when being pressured. Lee will not have a problem with a standing fight and definitely have no problem at all if he gets on top of Charles. Lee can put him in some terrible spots, lay some heavy ground and pound and potentially win by a TKO or submission by the fourth round. Oliveira has been a Draftkings stud. He has also had trouble in the past with making weight. He made a move to a higher weight class. The problem with the jump in weight is he has not fought the competition that Lee has faced. Charles not only moved up in weight but also moved up to face an opponent much stronger than he is. He’s going to come out guns blazing for the first five minutes, trying to do everything he can to knockout Lee out, and fast. When Oliveira comes out, he immediately starts hunting for submissions, body shots, and to end the fight quickly. If Oliveira wins, it will not be by a knockout, it will be by a late fourth or fifth round shifty, sneaky, quick submission, due to fatigue or a mistake by Lee. I do not see that happening. This is a fight where both fighters should produce a lot of fantasy points if it goes the distance. I am not opposed to stacking both of these fighters into one Draftkings lineup. Lee should win this fight, but not before producing 80 plus fantasy points.                                

SUMMARY:

In this 12 bout fight card, I am focusing on the projected high scoring fantasy point fights. I will be attempting to use fighters at lower ownership in my builds. I am going to lock in Kevin Lee in about 75% of my lineups, and avoid the top four highest salary fighters. My lineups will have a remaining salary of anywhere from 500 to 2,500. Good Luck, and don’t forget to come back and WinDaily!