Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is built around DraftKings pricing but is good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites.
We have a loaded 10 game NBA DFS slate to look at tonight, with several strategies to consider for your roster construction. With ample superstars available, a “stars and scrubs” approach is certainly in play. However, on larger slates, I tend to lean more towards a balanced approach. This allows me to focus on building my bankroll with cash games while taking a few shots at small field, single entry, GPP tournaments. With so many players to choose from, there’s an argument to be made for both strategies as ownership will be down across the board. Be sure you check in with some of the WinDaily staff in the Discord chat rooms throughout the day, to stay up to date on late-breaking news.
Studs
James Harden ($12400) On a large NBA DFS slate, at this salary, I expect Harden’s ownership to be diminished. A disappointing night last night, in combination with Westbrooks’s return, should make Harden a low owned commodity. He leads the NBA in scoring and has the ability to put up monster games with or without Russell.
Lebron James ($10400) James carries a 31.6% usage rate, a 50.1% assist rate, and a 12.3% rebound rate on the season. Anthony Davis isn’t expected to return tonight. He has stated that he’s still in pain after movement drills, and has yet to attempt any sprinting or contact exercises. Rajon Rondo is also out. Without these two guys off the court, LBJ gets huge spikes in all his stats leading to 1.71 FP/min. Orlando plays at one of the slowest paces in the league, and the Lakers are favored by 9.5.
Luka Doncic ($12100) On the second half of a B2B, against a Sacramento team, that (contrary to their 22nd DEFF, and 28th DvsA) defends the guard position well in my opinion; It’s a fade for me at this salary.
As I stated in the introduction, Idon’t think I’m going here. However, these guys should represent the best playson the NBA DFS slate tonight.
THE CORE
Jimmy Butler ($8600) Jimmy has a 25.5% usage rate and 1.23 FP/min. The Spurs rank 25th in DEFF and 26th in DvsA
Bradley Beal (8400) Beal has a 33.8% usage rate and 1.27 FP/min.
Kyrie Irving ($7900) Kyrie has a 35.3% usage rate and 1.48 FP/min. He has a tougher match up vs. Ben Simmons but is priced way too cheap for his expected production
Pascal Siakam ($7800) Pascal carries a 28.8% usage rate and 1.20 FP/min. OKC ranks 29th in DEFF. His minutes are back to normal after an injury stint, and he is also priced too cheap.
Malcolm Brogdon ($6700) Brogdon has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.18 FP/min. Minnesota ranks 28th in DvsA. Most important here is that Sabonis just hasn’t looked right since dealing with a lingering knee issue. Malcolm could be asked to carry the load on this NBA DFS slate.
Jaylen Brown ($6500) Brown has a 23.6% usage rate and 1.04 FP/min. Detroit ranks 26th in DEFF. Tatum is probable but also dealing with knee soreness. This is a nice spot, and price for Jaylen tonight.
Don’t overthink this too much. All these guys have high ceilings, low floors, get decent FP/min., have great usage rates, and the opportunity is there tonight. They are all underpriced in my opinion.
The Blazers/Rockets game currently has the highest projected implied team total. I will certainly be looking to get pieces there. Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Clint Capela are all on my radar as well.
VALUE
We’re going to need some value on this NBA DFS slate to get the stars we want. Denver is where we’re going to find it. As always, it’s a little too early to be making decisions on value pieces, but Murray (back) and Harris (groin) are both questionable, and Millsap (knee) is out. The Nuggets recalled PJ Dozier from the G League on Tuesday leading me to believe that some of these guys are going to sit tonight.
Jerami Grant ($5000) He’s already been starting and averaging 31 mins/gm over the last 3. Charlotte ranks 28th in DEFF, and Grant can stuff the stat sheet with this kind of opportunity.
Monte Morris ($3600) I don’t really like targeting guards vs. the Hornets, but his price will be hard to ignore if both Murray and Harris miss the game on this NBA DFS slate.
Michael Porter Jr. ($3700) He’s let us down before, but the opportunity may be there, and this kid has the ability and athleticism to be a nice sleeper tonight.
I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily team in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays of the NBA DFS slate. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
GOODLUCK AND HAVE FUN
