I rolled out a test version of a F5-centric MLBMA program yesterday, and I’d actually say I was more encouraged than perhaps the results would lead you to believe. Admittedly, I had some filters set lower than the last version and let’s just say they were originally there for a reason.
My friends, readers and followers all know I’m extremely process based so I don’t ever want it to seem as if I system hop, or make major changes because of a single night’s results. Most changes are slight adjustments in weighted formulas. Others are stringent rules. I’ll give you an example of a change I reinstated. As a rule I generally don’t short the score in either Colorado or Texas. The program liked the F5 u6.5 (that did end up only missing by .5), but that’s a wager that would get skipped in the future. In COL or TEX it’s over or nothing at all.
Before I post today’s hits I’d like to once again stress the importance of risk management & expectations. Trading, betting and fantasy sports are risk ventures and games of failure. They come with inherent risk, bad breaks & drawdowns. The single most important thing you can do if you intend on sustaining profitability is to calculate that risk, and make sure that your capital flow can withstand those valleys. NOT LOSING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WINNING. Take a look at this chart below for my best explanation.
You can see what I mean when I say that protecting your capital is paramount to success. Lose 10%, and you need to gain back 11.11% just to break even.
Today’s Algo Hits
I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today. I do not risk a fraction of my average wager during the test phase. That being said I really do like this five pack, but don’t want to be overexposed just yet. I’m going to play 90% of my daily allowed risk on a 10 x 3 Team Round Robin and the remaining 10% on all five just in case we get those bounces that didn’t go our way last night. There’s bit too much juice tied to some of these to play them all straight. So we’ll look for 3 of 5 wins to ensure a profitable day.
I’d like to tie in that last point to what I mentioned earlier about expectations. A successful trader considers +10% as extremely successful year. An average gambler expects to make +100% every night. The disconnect here is the main reason why so many fail, even if they are knowledgeable. If we make 15% on this move, that’s tremendous for a single day!
Don’t let Twitter gurus or anyone try and dictate how you strategize and attack; Your path to profit is your own. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you can make money with $10,000? Think about it.
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018