Thanks for following along the inaugural season of the MLBMA algo launch; The feedback has been nothing short of incredible, and the success rate has exceeded all expectations. We’ve thoroughly outperformed the market in an ever-changing MLB landscape and hopefully I’ve helped introduce a trader’s mentality into your betting strategy. Year to date our MLBMA public plays are winning over 70% of all decisions! So why fix what isn’t broke?
The MLBMA algo uses a combination of weighted rolling averages set to graphing tools in accordance with split statistics in order to determine the highest probabilities of success on any given night. It aims to remove as much noise as possible in its predictions. However, the general state of bullpens in the MLB has handicappers and bettors everywhere pulling their hair out. Let me give some context to a reality that seems all but too obvious:
Bullpens in High Leverage Situations, (All of MLB 2019)
6.92 ERA / 4.41 FIP / 4.51 xFIP
.246/.341/.415 Triple Slash Allowed
25.1% K Rate
11.6% BB Rate
13.5% K-BB Rate
48.3% LOB Rate
This is not the stat set we want our money behind in critical spots! Add in the fluid variability of a starting pitcher’s distance and to me it seems apparent that that best way to attack this current MLB environment is to eliminate those late innings altogether. I will give the caveat that some of the more patient teams (especially when at home) are worth full game bets. I’ll cover all those exceptions and more for anyone who continues to follow as we progress. I always stress the fact that money management and a written plan are ultimately more important than picking actual winners and losers. I’ve brought a trader’s strategy to the sports market and with proper discipline we are all going to make money over the long term. I assure you that I have my own hard earned money on every single game I put out publicly.
That’s the reasoning for the latest update to solely focus on first five inning results.
F5ML – Winning team through five innings
F5O/U – Line for Total Runs through five innings
F5TT – MLBMA algo’s implied individual team total for tonight’s game through five innings
F5TR – MLBMA algo’s implied game total through five innings
F5ML hits are the result of a decided two phase edge in that game.
F5O/U hits are the result of both the implied runs scored AND implied runs allowed being over or under the betting line.
Board Analysis / Strategy
*Note: In order to stay consistent with the working theory guiding this recent update, we should avoid going over for the first five innings. Even if the algo identifies an F5 over, (given the bullpen statistics) I’m letting it play out over nine innings. Give those same bullpens we’re avoiding a chance to implode. Betting the over on a nine inning play also gives your lineup a look at the starting pitcher a third time through the order. On that note, I would not take any full games as an under for the same reasoning. There are two overs flagged tonight, and I’ll be playing those as full game wagers.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THIS IS THE TEST PHASE. It’s our first look at this new version in real time. I’m definitely going to play these eight bets in different combinations, but at a low risk. To be completely honest, I’ve been betting with house money since early April so there’s no single strategy tailored to everyone. Don’t let anyone else dictate what you wager, or how you wager it. Personally, I generally try not to parlay more than two games, it’s a fool’s errand.
Let me share a good piece of advice when you’re involved in risk ventures whether it’s trading, betting, fantasy or other;
If you find yourself pacing the room, losing sleep or genuinely upset after a game… YOU BET ENTIRELY TOO MUCH. A disciplined trader/bettor wagers no more than 1.5% percent of stack on any given amount. So if we have a losing night it’s not that I do not care, it’s that I do have discipline.
LAA F5 ML
PHI F5 ML
CIN F5 ML
MIN F5 ML
SF/ARI F5 u5.5
CHW/TEX F5 u6.5
SD/PIT F5 O5 (Play O9.5 FG)
DET/CLE F5 O4 (Play O7.5 FG)
***Just for kicks, I ran the parlay odds. All 8 hits would pay nearly $11,000 on a $100 bet. If anyone out there is crazy and lucky enough to hit that, I’ll let you buy me lunch.***
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018