DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 7/19

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This is a fascinating DFS slate because there aren’t really many great cheap options out there. Cheap pitchers have been dominating DFS all season but I don’t think this scheduleis going to allow that. We actually have two cash game pitchers here that I believe are great bets for 40-plus and they’re elite options in both cash games and GPPs.  

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Cash Game Pitchers of the Day 

Jacob deGrom, NYM at SF 

DK ($10.600)   FD ($10,600) 

deGrom has the highest upside of any player on this DFS slate, as he truly has 60-point potential in this stellar matchup. Dating back to last season, deGrom is pitching to a 2.22 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. One would believe that those video game-like numbers would be a bit inflated but his 2.45 FIP and 32 percent K rate in that span indicates that it’s no fluke. That nasty stuff paired with this matchup makes deGrom one of the best plays on the board, with the Giants sitting 21^st in runs scored, 26^th in OBP, 27^th in OPS and 28^th in wOBA. Oracle Park is arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors, which is why the Giants have an implied run total of just 3.5 runs. and the Mets are a -195 favorite.  

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD vs. MIA 

DK ($11,000)   FD ($10,500) 

Is there any question that Ryu was going to be in this article? He’s simply been the best pitcher in the NL this season, which is evident by the fact that he sits first in both ERA and WHIP. A 1.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP are simply bonkers numbers at this point of the season and they’d be even better if it weren’t for an ugly Coors Field start two weeks ago. While he’s been dominant everywhere this year, his home numbers are downright silly. In fact, Ryu has a 0.85 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 63.2 innings at home en route to a 7-0 record and 8.9 K/9 rate.  

That’s why Ryu has at least 31 FanDuel points in 16 of his 18 starts this season, which is simply an unmatched floor. These unsightly statistics make Ryu the safest play on the slate and it doesn’t even take into consideration this cupcake matchup. The Marlins currently rank 19^th in K rate, 29^th in runs scored and last in wOBA, OPS and xwOBA. Vegas absolutely loves Ryu too, projecting the Marlins for a measly three runs with the Dodgers entering this game as a –310 favorite.  

Top-Tier Alternative

Shane Bieber, CLE vs. KC 

DK ($10.400)   FD ($10,800) 

Bieber is our final cash game option on this DFS slate and he also makes for a fantastic pivot. Many people will pick Verlander, deGrom or Ryu but Bieber has just as much upside. We’re talking about a guy with a 3.05 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP and 32 percent K rate. That’s just as good as any of those aforementioned studs and he’s actually been even better recently. Over his last six starts, Bieber is pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 0.75 WHIP while generating an 11.8 K/9 rate.  

The icing on the cake is this matchup though, is Kansas City sitting 22^nd in runs scored, 24^th in OPS, 25^th in xwOBA and 27^th in xSLG. What really makes them appealing to target is the fact that they’ll be without their best hitter in Adalberto Mondesi. That’s a major reason why the Royals are projected for just 3.5 runs with the Indians coming into this matchup as a –230 favorite. 

Justin Verlander is a great cash game DFS option too, as he’s facing a Rangers team that owns the worst K rate in the Majors.  

GPP Pitchers 

Tyler Mahle, CIN vs. STL 

DK ($6.000)   FD ($6,200) 

Ok, bear with me here. Mahle has been much better than his numbers would indicate and we need to take a deeper dive into these statistics. Let’s start with his recent matchups, with Mahle’s last 10 starts including games at COL, vs. MIL, vs. HOU, vs. TEX, at PHI, at CHC and vs. LAD. That’s a murderer’s row of a schedule and anyone would have a tough time maintaining a decent ERA in that span. The peripherals tell me that Mahle is much better than his 4.82 ERA, with the Cincy righty pitching to a 3.82 xFIP and 24.3 percent K rate. That’s why he has at least 31 FanDuel points in 10 of his 18 starts this season and that makes these prices hard to understand.  

The matchup may be the best part about this play though, with the Cardinals ranking 25^th in runs scored, 24^th in wOBA and 27^th in SLG. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna and Yadier Milona are all out of the lineup. We’re playing DFS here guys, you can take a risk on a bad pitcher on any given slate if the circumstances are there.  

Brendan McKay, TB vs. CWS 

DK ($8,700)   FD ($8,000)  

This young gun has been an absolute stud in his short time at the Majors, pitching to a 1.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP across 16 innings. That’s really no surprise when you consider his 1.22 ERA and 0.80 WHIP at Double-A and Triple-A, as this is simply one of the best pitching prospects in the game.  

All that would put him in consideration against pretty much anyone but especially vs. the White Sox. In fact, Chicago currently ranks 25^th in wOBA, 28^th in runs scored and 23^rd in K rate. That’s a scary thought considering they’ll be without Eloy Jimenez too.  We’re looking at the Rays as a projected –200 favorite with the White Sox forecasted to score less than four runs.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

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Hyun-Jin Ryu Over 5.5 Strikeouts

While Ryu is not really known for his strikeouts, it would be hard to imagine him not reaching this total in such a premium matchup. I anticipate Ryu going 7-8 innings and that alone should guarantee him 6 Ks with his 24 percent K rate and stellar matchup.

Reynaldo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts

Lopez has an unsightly 5.97 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. That’s why the Rays are projected for more than five runs here and I really don’t see Lopez going past the fifth inning. That will make this total tough to reach, especially with the Rays sitting ninth in xwOBA, full of dangerous bats.