DFS Hitting and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 4/29

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Welcome to my first hitting article at Win Daily. What we’re going to do is find my top play at each position and provide insights on why it’s a great play on either DraftKings or FanDuel. Then, I’ll give my play of the day on Monkey Knife Fight!

Catcher 

James McCann, CWS vs. BAL  

FD ($2,800)     DK ($4,000) 

It’s strange to see a catcher batting in the heart of any order these days but that’s just what McCann is doing for the White Sox. The main reason why is because of his recent form, with McCann 8-for-14 at the plate over the last three games while collecting four runs and four RBI. That form would make him attractive no matter what in this price range, but him getting the platoon advantage is the icing on the cake. Not only does McCann own a .993 OPS against southpaws this season, he also posted a .928 OPS against lefties in 2017. 

First Base 

Daniel Murphy, COL at MIL 

FD ($3,000)     DK ($4,700)   

This FanDuel price absolutely blows my mind, as we anticipate Murphy being a $4,000 player for the majority of the season. The fact that he just returned from a finger injury is why his price is so low, but it’s hard to understand why with his hitting profile. Over the last four years, Murphy has posted an average of .325 and an OPS north of .900. He’s showing glimpses of that recently too, with Murphy scoring at least one run in five-straight games while hitting dingers in back-to-back games heading into this matchup. Facing Zach Davies is huge too, with Murphy posting a .914 OPS against righties over the last three years.

If Jesus Aguilar gets the start, he’s a nice value with his power upside and platoon advantage in his favor.

Second Base 

Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. SD 

FD ($3,900)     DK ($4,500)   

Albies has traditionally been better against southpaws and his recent form makes him a tough play to fade. Over his last 14 games. Albies has collected 18 runs, four homers and eight RBI en route to an OPS just shy of .900. That alone makes him attractive, but Albies has also posted an OPS of .904 against southpaws since he joined the Majors. Nick Margevicius is a guy we want to exploit too, as he’s allowed seven runs and 17 baserunners across just nine innings in his last two starts. That’s a scary sight heading into a hitter’s park like SunTrust Park and I’d be surprised if he gets into the sixth inning. 

Third Base 

Nolan Arenado, COL at MIL 

FD ($4,500)     DK ($5,400)   

Arenado is typically a guy we only want to use at home, but hitting in Miller Park is one of the only situations that’s comparable to Coors Field. What we really like about Arenado here is his form, as he enters this matchup rolling. Coming into Sunday, Arenado has homered in six of his last 11 games while homering in five-straight road games. That looks particularly intriguing against a guy like Zach Davies, who owns a 4.76 xFIP so far this season. 

Don’t forget about Josh Donaldson, as he hit three homers last week and gets the platoon advantage against Margevicius.  

Shortstop 

Carlos Correa, HOU at MIN 

FD ($3,500)     DK ($4,800)   

Correa got off to a slow start this season but recent results would indicate that he’s nearly back to his All-Star form. Not only does Correa enter this matchup in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak, he’s doing some serious damage in that stretch. In fact, Correa has four dingers and three doubles in that span, adding six runs and eight RBI to his tally. That’s all you can ask for from someone in this price range and I expect the Astros to knock around Jake Odorizzi. The Twins righty is a guy who has some serious regression headed his way too, as his .401 xSLG and 4.74 xFIP indicates that he’s been extremely lucky this season. 

Outfielders 

Charlie Blackmon, COL at MIL 

FD ($4,100)     DK ($4,900)   

Much like Arenado, Blackmon comes into this matchup extremely hot. Over his last nine games, Blackmon is 17-for-41 at the plate while collecting eight runs, nine RBI and eight extra-base hits. That’s the player that fantasy owners have been waiting for all season long and he looks like an even better play here considering this matchup. In fact, Blackmon has posted a .951 OPS against right-handers since the beginning of 2016 and Davies is not a guy we need to fear. 

Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL vs. SD

FD ($4,000)     DK ($4,900)   

Acuna might be my favorite play on the board, as he should have success against Margevicius. Since joining the majors last season, Acuna owns a .413 OBP and .647 SLG en route to a 1.060 OPS against southpaws. That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that Acuna posted an OPS north of 1.000 in 2016 and 2017 at the Triple-A level. In addition, Acuna has posted a .407 wOBA and a .393 xwOBA so far this season, which indicates he’s well on his way to a big run. That spells disaster for a guy like Margevicius, who will inevitably see some regression with his 4.28 xFIP and 16 percent K:BB-rate. Vegas is telling us that the Braves are a nice stack here too, as they’re projected to score nearly five runs as a –160 favorite in a  game with a total of nine.

A.J. Pollock, LAD at SF 

FD ($3,000)     DK ($3,600)   

Pollock simply has too much potential to be priced this cheaply, as he’s typically a $4,500 guy on DraftKings and a $4,000 player on FanDuel. That’s evident by the fact that he has posted an OPS north of .800 in four of the past five seasons while averaging 16 homers and 23 steals per year. One has to believe that his run and RBI totals will only go up this season batting in the heart of a potent Dodgers order and he’s a nice play until he gets closer to $4,000. That could begin here against a guy like Jeff Samardzija, who owns a .432 xSLG this season while posting an xFIP approaching 6.00 over the last two seasons. 

Khris Davis is a nice value in the $4,000-range on both sites, as he has one of the best ISOs in the majors while getting the platoon advantage in a hitter’s haven like Fenway Park. 

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Day 

Josh Donaldson over 1.5 bases 

Donaldson got a brief mention in the write-up because we wanted to save his info for this play. Over his last 14 games, Donaldson has five home runs, four doubles, 12 runs scored and 13 RBI en route to a .311 average. That makes him a good play no matter what, but a fantastic bet to reach at least two bases. All we need is one extra-base hit from Donaldson and he’s easily one of the best bets on the board to do just that. Donaldson has made mince meat of lefties throughout his career too, posting an OPS just shy of 1.000 against southpaws since the beginning of 2015. 

Bonus Pick: Justin Verlander 2.5 strikeouts more than Jake Odorizzi. I expect Houston to roll over Minnesota here and Verlander may end up getting more strikeouts than innings pitched by Odorizzi.