CS:GO DFS: Ghost’s ESL Breakdown 09/04

176

CS:GO Slate Summary: ESL (8am EST)

• 4 series on DK
• Best of 3

CS:GO Matchup #1: Natus Vincere (-175) vs ENCE (+125)

The first matchup on the CS:GO slate sees NAVI taking on ENCE, who is coming off a rather impressive win over Heroic. Since both teams ban Vertigo first at 90+% rates, I expect neither to sue their first ban on it; instead, I can see ENCE taking away Inferno and NAIV choosing to ban Mirage. In turn, ENCE will likely select Train, whilst NAVI will probably turn to one of Dust2 or Nuke. With s1mple remaining under 10K, he is firmly in play for both the flex and captain spots, if you’re comfortable stooping down into some low-priced value plays; the AWPer’s 1.39 K/D and 0.81 KPR over the past three months is simply uncanny, and his upside on this slate is second to none.

Top Plays: s1mple ($9,800), electronic ($7,800), flamie ($5,400)

CS:GO Matchup #2: BIG (-200) vs OG (+150)

The second matchup sees two familiar foes in BIG and OG taking one another on for yet another matchup. Ever since they went on their ridiculous run dating back to DreamHack in the spring, BIG has owned OG in their head-to-head matchup, and I don’t see how that changes here today. BIG bans Train first at an 89% rate while OG bans Vertigo first 94% of the time. With how dominant BIG has been on Dust2, I expect them to continue picking it, while OG will likely turn to Inferno with their selection, where they are riding a 6-map winning streak and hold an advantage in winning percentage. While the trio of syrsoN, tabseN, and XANTERES will always find a way to get theirs, k1to’s 1.30 K/D and 0.76 KPR on Dust2 is what makes him such an intriguing play from a point/$ perspective, and I’ll definitely be overweight compared to the field.

Top Plays: syrsoN ($9,000), tabseN ($8,800), k1to ($6,800)

CS:GO Matchup #3: Heroic (-400) vs AGO (+275)

The third matchup on the CS:GO slate has our biggest favorite and #2 team in the world, Heroic, taking on AGO. While mhL can keep AGO in matches such as this one, Heroic has been playing as good as anyone since the return from the player break. With them being the heaviest favorite on the slate as affordable prices, I’m expecting massive ownership on both stavn and TeSeS, and would likely be slightly underweight in large field tournaments, although they do make for a solid core in cash games and single entry tournaments.

Top Plays: stavn ($8,000), TeSeS ($7,400)

One-off: mhL ($6,600)

CS:GO Matchup #4: Evil Geniuses (-350) vs 100 Thieves (+250)

The last matchup on the CS:GO slate sees two NA teams as familiar with one another as it gets. With how little these two teams play on both Overpass and Mirage, look for neither of them to be in consideration here. Rather, look for EG to turn to Inferno, if 100T doesn’t ban it, or Nuke, while 100T will likely select Vertigo, should it be available. EG holds all the map advantages necessary here, with the lone exception of Vertigo, and I expect EG to go for a 2-0 sweep here. CeRq is an elite play sitting under 9k, and his 1.25 K/D and 0.78 KPR online has really seen him take his game to another level.

Top Plays: CeRq ($8,200), Ethan ($7,800)

One-off: jks ($7,000)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!