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DFS Strategy

Al’s UFC Fight Night Deep Dive, DraftKings, FanDuel, Odds, DFS Picks, & Top Plays 8/20

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UFC 278

USMAN V EDWARDS 2

Welcome back everyone to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! What an amazing numbered card we have tonight! The long-awaited return of Luke Rockhold, and the P4P champ Kamaru Usman! Today’s slate will start at 6:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will end with a fight for the Welterweight strap. Let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 278 Usman vs Edwards 2.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jose Also (+110) (DK 8000) (FD $14) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-138) (DK 8200) (FD $17).

Jose Aldo is slowing starting to prove that age is not a factor, after losing to Petr Yan for the Bantamweight strap he has rattled off three wins against top competition. Tonight, the challenge doesn’t get any easier against someone like Merab. Merab loves spamming takedowns. He averages over 7 takedowns a fight, thankfully, Aldo has had a very stead 90% takedown defense rate throughout his long UFC career. Both are fairly evenly matched in the striking department and I think this fight will come down to consistency and Fight IQ, and in a battle of wits, I think Aldo takes the day.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jose Aldo (+110) (DK 8000) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Alexandr Romanov (-400) (DK 9000) (FD $20) vs. Marcin Tybura (+300) (DK 7200) (FD $10).

King Kong is back! He’s been an absolute beast through his first 5 UFC fights, with the fight against Espino being the only fight that went to the judges’ table. Although Tybura is a step up in competition from Romanov’s last two opponents, Tybura is not even close to Romanov’s level. Romanov has very quick striking, strong defensive fundamentals and extremely impressive grappling and wrestling for a heavyweight, so much so that three of his five UFC wins have come via Submission (two in the first round). Tybura won’t really be able to keep up with Romanov in this matchup since the number of threats that Romanov has in any given moment of the fight is too much to consider.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Alexandr Romanov (-400) (DK 9000) (FD $20) FIRST ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Tyson Pedro (-800) (DK 9500) (FD $22) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+550) (DK 6700) (FD $8)

This is a matchup between someone who is UFC calibre and someone who is not. Pedro has had an up and down UFC career but he has been able to rack up some wins. Hunsucker has been a human punching bag in the UFC landing a SLpM rate of 3.83 while holding a SApM rate of 6.70, just abysmal. I have nothing good to say about Harry Hunsucker and that’s enough for me to be squarely in Tyson Pedro’s camp for this matchup. I don’t think Hunsucker’s career will last much longer after this matchup either. Pedro will put him away early.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tyson Pedro (-800) (DK 9500) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Kamaru Usman -400 (DK 9100) (FD $23) (5 ROUNDER)

Paulo Costa -400 (DK 8700) (FD $19) (Rockhold has just been out of the scene for too long)

Lucie Pudilova -125 (FADE) (DK 8300) (FD $16)

Jared Gordon -275 (DK 8900) (FD $19) (Leonard Santos is a solid underdog option)

Sean Woodson -350 (DK 8800) (FD $20)

AJ Fletcher -160 (DK 8400) (FD $18) (Lots of fireworks in this one, Ange Loosa is an interesting GPP play)

Amir Albazi -450 (DK 9200) (FD $21)

Aoriqileng -150 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

Victor Altamirano -170 (DK 8600) (FD $18)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!


As an avid hockey fan since 2007, I suffered through the worst moments in Toronto Maple Leafs history and persevered to tell the story. I picked up NHL DFS in 2017 after being introduced to FanDuel by a family member and began writing NHL articles for Daily Play Action since 2018. Since my introduction to DFS, I've surpassed the initial bumps in the road and have continually sought to hone my game season after season. Today, I have solely focused on improving as an NHL and UFC DFS player in order to maximize my output in those sports. This is truly a win-win as I also love the sport itself. In 2019, I notably recommended Sean Kuraly in the NHL Winter Classic, where he went on to be the most valuable player of the slate with a goal and 5 shots. I was also in on Mantha when he had a whopping 12.9x value, Perlini when he posted a 10x value and Ennis, who was my top value play of the year at 14.9x value. My most notable NHL takedown was the NHL 4.44 Breakaway where I won $5,000. You can find me on Twitter @AFabrykant and FanDuel as InAustonWeTrust.

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