Connect with us
Football Articles Projection Model Cheat Sheets Season Long Rankings Totals Tool Prize Picks Prop Model Basketball Articles Projection Models Prize Picks Prop Model Cheat Sheet Golf Articles Projection Model Showdown Stats Tools Optimizer Nascar Articles Hockey Articles NHL Projection Model Other Sports NCAAF Mixed Martial Arts Soccer League of Legends Off Season Baseball Articles Baseball Projections Baseball Tools Sports Betting Articles Home Run Model About Us Win Daily Team Shop Merch Shop Book Announcements Contact Us Our Community

Become part of our Family in our Expert Chat! This is where all the magic happens. We created a community which we consider a family of DFS players and Sports Bettors like yourself.

Expert Chat
Gold Membership Optimizer Membership Free Membership Sharp App PrizePicks Partners The Sharp App Free Download Prize Picks 100% Deposit Match up to $100 Monkey Knife Fight 100% Instant Deposit Match (up to $100) DraftKings DFS 20% Deposit Up To $500 Bonus DraftKings SportsBook $1,000 Deposit Bonus; Bet $5, Win $280 FanDuel DFS 20% Deposit Bonus Up To $500 FanDuel SportsBook $1,000 Risk Free Bet; Bet $5, Win $280 Points Bet Up To $2,000 in Free Bets BETMGM $1,000 Risk Free 1st Bet Caesars $1,100 First Bet Match OwnersBox 100% Deposit Match up to $500 Underdog Fantasy 100% Deposit Match up to $100 BetRivers 100% Deposit Match up to $250 Sugarhouse 100% Deposit Match up to $250 Administrator Quick Links wp-admin Membership Reports Members Subscriptions Transactions Content Access Rules Monster Insights Microsoft BI Administrator Quick Links 2 New Funnel New Page Theme Editor Affiliate Royale ACF Writer Quick Links wp-admin New Post All Posts New Sportsbetting Pick All Sportsbetting Picks Affiliate Quick Links Dashboard Data Analyst Quick Links NBA Proj Dashboard MLB Proj Dashboard NFL Proj Dashboard Golf Proj Dashboard Cheat Sheet Quick links Sign Up Log In Articles

Articles

NFL NCAAF PGA NBA Soccer Nascar LOL MMA NHL Learn Video Sports Betting
Tools

Tools

Top Tools

Optimizer NFL DK Projection Model NFL FD Projection Model NBA Projection Model PGA Projection Model NHL Projection Model

Projection Models

NFL PGA NHL NBA

Other Tools

Lineup Optimizer PrizePicks NFL Prop Model Prizepicks NBA Prop Model NFL Cheat Sheet NFL Totals Tool NBA Cheat Sheet PGA Showdown Stats Soccer Cheat Sheet NFL Season Long Rankings
Community

Community

Expert Chat The Team Shop Merch Shop Book Announcements Contact Us Facebook Twitter Instagram Twitch Youtube Live
Memberships

Memberships

Partners

Partners

SportsBook Reviews

Academy

Academy

Links

Articles Videos Podcasts

DFS Strategy

Al’s UFC Fight Night Deep Dive, DraftKings, FanDuel, Odds, DFS Picks, & Top Plays 10/21

Published

on

UFC 280

OLIVEIRA V MAKACHEV

We got a banger… Welcome back, everyone, to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! We are back after two weaker cards we are coming into today with one of the BIGGEST, MOST ANTICIPATED cards of the year! Today’s slate will start at 10:00 AM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will end with two title fights in the Men’s Lightweight and Bantamweight Divisions. Let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 10:00 AM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 280 Oliveira vs Makachev.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makachev

I usually don’t do this, I never list the main event within my three plays of the day, but this card is different. There are a couple of underdogs who could do some damage, AJ Dobson, Sean O’Malley and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, but something about this fight makes me lack a lot of confidence in Makachev. Trust me, I’ve been burned by Oliveira wins before, whenever he is an underdog, he rises to the occasion. That’s been a theme of the 11-fight winning streak he is currently on. On the Makachev side of things, he’s a known quantity, his grappling is the same, and overall he’s a little below Khabib’s level but has adopted a very similar fighting style, and the Eagle will be in his corner to give directions on how to take control of the fight. Makachev has some serious holes in his game, he’s been able to cover them up against guys who are not on the same level as him when it comes to grappling, but Oliveira will be a problem for him on the ground. I think this is a very likely upset, and although I wouldn’t include it in your safe parlays, I would definitely take the risk in DFS and on some riskier parlays.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Oliveira THIRD-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad

Here we have a Philly v Chicago matchup, and no, this is not the Blackhawks vs the Flyers. This matchup is going to be more of a wrestling exhibition, as I don’t think I’ve seen either of these fighters rely on anything but their grappling to rack up UFC wins. Muhammad is known for having one of the most boring fight styles in the UFC, and although Brady keeps things more interesting, he still has a fighting game largely dominated by wrestling. Belal has an average fight time of 14 minutes, and Brady’s is around 13 minutes, so they both go to the judges’ cards a lot. Similarly, both hold similar striking stats, with their Strikes Landed per Minute (or SLpM) around 4 and their Strikes Absorbed per Minute (or SApM) around 3. Evens out to a Strike Differential (or SD) of around +1. Where they break apart, however, is in the grappling department. Brady has a much better takedown accuracy of 60% compared to Belal’s 35%, and Brady averages nearly one more takedown more than Belal per fight. Brady also currently carries a perfect record and has a much more developed grappling game than Belal, I think that this matchup will kick Belal out of the top five and out of the title conversation. He is simply punching above his weight right now.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean Brady UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon

This is easily the biggest mismatch on the card. Mokaev is an undefeated prospect coming out of the United Kingdom and has some of the greatest fundamentals out of any prospect that we’ve seen in a long time. Gordon has been dealt a really bad hand in this matchup, and I see Mokaev getting the job done quickly in the first round. Gordon can keep things competitive on the feet, but once he gets taken down, it’s game over. I think there is some good value in an under two rounds or even first-round finish prop, but if you can find Mokaev by finish (both KO and SUB), then I would definitely recommend hopping on that line for your parlays. Bet365 currently has it listed as -250. This is not to say that Mokaev won’t face some challenges as he rises through the UFC ranks, but this matchup should not be competitive, and I can definitely see Mokaev reaching the potential of a top-5 flyweight or maybe even a champion or title contender one day.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Muhammad Mokaev FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

TJ Dillashaw (5 ROUNDER) (Very close matchup between Dillashaw and Sterling, although I know that Sterling has a very good grappling pedigree [which is why he can be known as the human backpack], I think this fight stays on the feet for the majority of the time and assuming it goes to the judges, in a 25-minute grudge match, I think Dillashaw is more consistent and has a better long term game that will make the difference.)

Petr Yan (Although I like Yan to win based on his hand speed and punching power, I think there is some value in O’Malley as an underdog, on paper Petr Yan should be ahead of O’Malley, but Yan usually takes a round to settle in if O’Malley could use that to his advantage and put the pressure on early, he could surprise people. Despite that, I still can’t underestimate Yan’s Muy Thai kicks, and we have seen O’Malley get severely compromised by kicks in the past that were nowhere near the level of what Yan will be able to do)

Mateusz Gamrot (This one was tricky for me to decide on, both fighters have their strengths and are definitely deserving of their place in the Lightweight division, but I think that Gamrot has more experience, is more well-rounded and has had a stronger strength of schedule. Not to mention, I cannot even explain how impressive it is to hold a win over Arman Tsarukyan. That fight is rightly considered a contender for fight of the year.)

Manon Fiorot

Caio Borralho

Nikita Krylov

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (This is definitely one of the closer fights on the card, and although it could go either way, I think Omargadzhiev has been the more consistent fighter, and I like him in this position as an underdog.)

Armen Petrosyan

Karol Rosa FADE

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP-winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!


As an avid hockey fan since 2007, I suffered through the worst moments in Toronto Maple Leafs history and persevered to tell the story. I picked up NHL DFS in 2017 after being introduced to FanDuel by a family member and began writing NHL articles for Daily Play Action since 2018. Since my introduction to DFS, I've surpassed the initial bumps in the road and have continually sought to hone my game season after season. Today, I have solely focused on improving as an NHL and UFC DFS player in order to maximize my output in those sports. This is truly a win-win as I also love the sport itself. In 2019, I notably recommended Sean Kuraly in the NHL Winter Classic, where he went on to be the most valuable player of the slate with a goal and 5 shots. I was also in on Mantha when he had a whopping 12.9x value, Perlini when he posted a 10x value and Ennis, who was my top value play of the year at 14.9x value. My most notable NHL takedown was the NHL 4.44 Breakaway where I won $5,000. You can find me on Twitter @AFabrykant and FanDuel as InAustonWeTrust.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

At Win Daily, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” Sure, we want to help you win that big DFS tournament. But we want you to have a greater enjoyment of Daily Fantasy Sports while you are doing it. Along the way, you also may learn some life lessons and gain some perspectives you may have never considered before.

Join Now

©2020 WIN DAILY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

DISCLAIMER: This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.

Published

on